Accidental Blogger

Everything in Texas is big. Also a bit dangerous …  and complicated.

As Bill Clinton recently reminded voters here, "Texas is the only place in America where you can vote twice in the same election without going to jail."

How does that work? Here is a primer. (or if you’d rather, watch this video for a shorter version)

Texans just have to be different. Even when it comes to picking a presidential nominee.

Most other states have a primary or a caucus. Texas Democrats use both. The "Texas two-step" is a cute metaphor for this electoral hybrid, but it could make for a long and potentially confusing day on Tuesday. Primary polls will run for 12 hours. Then Democratic voters can return for their precinct’s caucus. Roughly two-thirds of Texas’ Democratic delegates come from the primaries, and one-third from the caucus process that night.

The Texas caucuses normally are ignored by everyone but die-hard party activists. But this year, they could tip the delegate balance toward Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton. The process is so complicated that one candidate could win more popular votes statewide, but still end up with fewer delegates.

So how does it work? Obama volunteer Sumita Prasad boiled it down like this: "In that precinct room, you want more of us and less of them. You don’t need to know math or formulas."

The caucus — officially dubbed a "precinct convention" — begins at 7:15 p.m. or when the polls close, whichever is later. Caucus-goers arrive and put their names and presidential preference on the "sign-in sheet." The group first elects a chair and secretary. Those two then take a count, noting the total number of people and how many are for Obama or Clinton. Delegates then are distributed proportionally.

For example, say 100 people show up at a given precinct on Tuesday night. If 75 of them support Clinton, and 25 support Obama, then she gets 75 percent of the delegates and he gets 25 percent. If the precinct has 20 delegates to allot, Clinton gets 15, Obama 5.

But there is more and it is complicated. Since caucuses haven’t mattered much in the past and the rules are a bit vague, they will be hard to implement especially with the huge turnouts that are expected in this year’s primary. The final results may be called into question by the loser. They may even lead to lawsuits.

Though the basic principles are simple, some fear that massive turnout and a tight race could create unforeseen problems at the 874 caucuses throughout Harris County.

"They’re not well-understood, they’re not well-documented, and the rules have been followed quite loosely in the past," said April Lloyd, assistant primary director for Harris County Democratic Primary.

If primary turnout this year is any indicator, attendance at the caucuses could be record-breaking, said Gerry Birnberg, chairman of the Harris County Democratic Party. More than 158,000 people participated in early voting in Harris County’s Democratic primary. Birnberg said that up to half a million people could vote by the close of polls Tuesday. The highest primary turnout in the last 20 years was 78,000 in 2004.

"This is just completely off the charts," he said. "Where the big question mark comes is: How many people will come back for precinct conventions?"

Usually, only 5,000 people attend caucuses throughout Harris County, Birnberg said. But up to 100,000 people could show up Tuesday night.

Some party insiders like this Byzantine way of voting and others find it unnecessary and unuseful.

"I heard a lot of complaints about how confusing it is," Lloyd said. If Democrats want to abolish the caucus system, they must attend a caucus and introduce a resolution to that effect.

Orell Fitzsimmons of Houston Heights plans to do that.

"The caucus is about the power brokers in the Democratic party controlling it," said Fitzsimmons, a union organizer. Also, people who work at night are effectively excluded, he said.

John Blevins, a professor at South Texas College of Law, said caucuses also exclude people who cannot afford baby sitters, the elderly and the sick.

"It’s hard for them to go sit around for hours at night," he said. "I definitely think this is going to give some pause to reconsider it. In a way, it’s a blessing, because it shows what a complicated system it is, which makes it easier to reform or at least start a dialogue."

Other Democrats said caucuses help build party loyalty and participation.

"It’s much more participatory than just voting in a primary," Tyler said. "There are discussions, it’s very neighborhood-oriented."

I will spend most of today as an election worker at a nearby voting precinct.  I have already cast my primary ballot. In the evening, when the polls close and I am done with tallying votes, I intend to go and caucus at another location.  In the past elections, no one I know bothered to caucus because the nominations were more or less decided by the time the primaries rolled into Texas. But this year is different. The phones are ringing off the hook with campaign calls. Nobody really knows how things will break for Clinton and Obama.

If a clear decision does not emerge tonight in the Democratic Primaries, it will be Groundhog’s Day – seven more weeks of campaign and dust ups. Today’s primary states (TX, OH, RI & VT) will then kick the ball to Pennsylvania (primary date: April 22), home of the Groundhog … and Sujatha!