Based on computer modeling studies, University of Colorado scientists predict that a limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan will not only cause havoc in the vicinity of the Indian subcontinent; it will also have far reaching effects on human (and animal) health and the environment worldwide.
A limited nuclear weapons exchange between Pakistan and India using their current arsenals could create a near-global ozone hole, triggering human health problems and wreaking environmental havoc for at least a decade, according to a study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder.
The computer-modeling study showed a nuclear war between the two countries involving 50 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices on each side would cause massive urban fires and loft as much as 5 million metric tons of soot about 50 miles into the stratosphere, said CU-Boulder Research Associate Michael Mills, chief study author. The soot would absorb enough solar radiation to heat surrounding gases, setting in motion a series of chemical reactions that would break down the stratospheric ozone layer protecting Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation, said Mills.
"We would see a dramatic drop in ozone levels that would persist for many years," said Mills of CU-Boulder’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics. "At mid- latitudes the ozone decrease would be up to 40 percent, which could have huge effects on human health and on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems."
A paper on the subject, titled "Massive Global Ozone Loss Predicted Following A Regional Nuclear Conflict," appeared the week of April 7 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Co-authors on the study include CU-Boulder Professor Brian Toon, UCLA Professor Richard Turco and National Center for Atmospheric Research scientists Douglas Kinnison and Rolando Garcia.
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3 responses to “Local Wars, Global Consequences”
Don’t you just love the scenarios these guys paint? I’ve seen CNN and Fox do this, I’ve seen Bush and the politicos do this, I’ve seen grad students in the US talk like this.. but scientists?
(Notice also the geographical knowledge of the writer of that piece. The article talks about India and Pakistan, and the photo caption refers to the region as the “Middle East”. lol.)
A war involving not one, but 50, Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices, on EACH side no less, and that too between India and Pakistan?! I’d say the probability of that happening is less than miniscule. Certainly tiny compared to the chance of the US engaging any random oil-rich country of the world in that sort of idiocy.
Bah. Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw Boulders at the world.
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Ruchiraji, my first comment on your very nice blog:
There are simulations and then there are simulations. Most get reality tested at some real-life level, however small. For this one I hope and pray that will never happen. Even if it is totally wrong, PNAS notwithstanding, it has some scare value, plus it drives home the point that the damage won’t just be local. Last year I heard General Raychaudhri (Retd), who btw, has totally bought the South-Asia-in-the-image-of-EU idea, say that while India had a ‘no first use’ doctrine, and while nuclear weapons must never be used, he could not completely rule out the rare case where they might be – like the Brahmastra of the Ramayana that was used against Ravana. The silliness of appealing to mythological analogies apart, it does reveal a willingess to use them. Perhaps this is as far as a military mind could articulate things. But we need to go further, and this study will push us in that direction.
About the glass houses comment, US strategic thinking is actually moving toward no-nukes-for-anyone-including-us. Kissinger and other biggies now favor it. It’s the only sensible strategic posture once you contemplate the kind of expansion in civilian nuclear power worldwide that is being planned. Of course, it may still be a very long time before it happens.
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Chachaji,
Thank you very much for your tempered opinion. I have been to Hiroshima and Nagasaki and seen the Peace Memorials in both places. Like you, no study is too alarmist for me when it comes to nuclear confrontation, whether on the scale of mere skirmish or total annihiliation.
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