I haven’t read that much on the Russia-Georgia conflict. The Russian invasion of Georgia. Whatever you want to call it. So as far as what actually happened, it’s not entirely clear to me. But anyhow, one of the most interesting (and worrying) aspects of the conflict is the role of the United States. Take the counterfactual that the U.S. had not invaded and occupied the Middle East (or at least Iraq, the focal point of our resource-allocation). It may not be clear exactly what would have happened, but isn’t it safe to say that things would have gone differently?
We’re overcommitted and everybody knows it. So we tell Russia that we don’t like what they’re doing, and they know that we’re not going to do anything militarily. Meanwhile, Russia’s pretty tight with China, so that at least cuts into our economic leverage. Let’s say they force a regime change in Georgia. Georgia stops trying to join NATO. Other states (similarly situated to pre-conflict Georgia) understand this to mean that the U.S. won’t be protecting them even though Russia’s a bit unhinged.
At the same time, this doesn’t speak only to Russia. No one doubts that we’re ready to "bomb bomb bomb Iran," but if anything pops up anywhere else in the world? We’ll stand by and watch, and lack leverage in diplomatic efforts.
Isn’t this at least a plausible lesson to glean from current events? (And then if I’m right about that, isn’t it a talking point that Democrats should be using to hammer away at George Bush’s War and John McCain’s Permanent Occupation?)
Accidental Blogger 
3 responses to “Russia, Georgia, and American Impotence (Joe)”
“We’ll stand by and watch, and lack leverage in diplomatic efforts.”
Well put. Bush has eroded whatever credibility we had amongst other nations. Another perfect example of this: Turkey has briefly invaded northern Iraq several times in the past year, during on-again/off-again skirmishes with the Kurds there. It’s not something that’s getting a lot of press, but it has put the US in a terrible position. Pressure is being put on Turkey to deescalate the conflict…but what can the US possibly say? “Hey, invading Iraq is dangerous and irresponsible”. We’ve been forced to sit on the sidelines about it, since any statement we utter would be automatically (and painfully) ironic.
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In any case, even if we had the credibility, what gives us the moral right to interfere everywhere, define national borders or decide who can or can not obtain autonomy (Kosovo, yes; South Ossetia, no)? American voters get ticked off when foreigners hold forth on who should or should not be the next American president. Yet we have no problem dictating to other nations who their elected leaders should be, who their friends/ enemies must be, whether they should revert to religiosity and of course, how they should run their economy.
This Georgia-Russia thing is extremely confounding and not a little suspicious. Yes, Russia has been ham-fisted in its incursion into Georgia. But I am not sure that this is clearly a “good guys vs bad guys” situation similar to Czechoslovakia of 1968 as Condoleeza Rice (the “Russian Expert”) would have us believe. I think the Georgian president Sakaashvilli got too cocky – having sent troops to Iraq, alignining himself with the west and obtaining reassurances of US military support against Russia. Russia is no longer the bruised bear of the 1990s. It is doing very well economically and has regained much of its military confidence since its own debacle in Afghanistan in the ’80s. What with the talk of defensive missile installations in Poland and showy military training in Georgia, the US lost no opportunity to prove to Russia that it has lost its dominance in the region where the USSR used to reign supreme. The steely eyed Putin was not going to sit around meekly and have an upstart like Sakaashvilli thumb his nose at him. Putin probably wants us to know that Russia is not exactly helpless and defanged. So, this was to be expected. Why with our military so overstretched (the situation in Afghanistan is again precarious), we want to provoke Cold-War era games with Russia is beyond my comprehension. In fact we should be begging for Russian cooperation in Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. The truth about this Georgia fiasco will emerge some day and we will know what exactly is going on now.
Whom else have we reassured with the promise of military protection in case of an emergency? Most of the newly minted “democratic” nations in central and eastern Europe who were under the Soviet umbrella against Russian aggression for one, and Taiwan against China for another. Can we keep our word if either scenario unfolds suddenly and dangerously? Will the American citizens stand for such intervention? I don’t know. Matt has already mentioned Turkey and Kurdistan. Kurds too believe that the Americans will “protect” them because they have been so loyal during Bush’s wonderful Iraqi adventure. Hasn’t happened.
Meanwhile there is Sudan… and Burma.. and Congo.. and Zimbabwe, where we have promised nothing and done nothing.
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Here is an op-ed piece in the New York Times by ex-Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev. He says some of the same things I have said above. One doesn’t have to believe everything in the op-ed. After all, Gorbachev is not exactly an unbiased party. But somehow he is more convincing than the shifty Sakaashvilli of Georgia and less self-righteous than Bush-Rice-McCain. I bet there is more here than meets the eye.
“The news coverage has been far from fair and balanced, especially during the first days of the crisis. Tskhinvali was in smoking ruins and thousands of people were fleeing ā before any Russian troops arrived,” writes Gorbachev. Many others have expressed skepticism about the exact sequence of events. Some are calling it the AP War. Sujatha forwarded me the following links to a blog and a photo montage from Reuters just days after the skirmish broke out.
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