- Roughly equal parts of the country want gay marriage, civil unions without marriage, and no legal recognition whatsoever. I’m assuming the second category is what ‘swings’ in marriage votes as in California or Maine.
- Ad campaigns that cleverly use the words ‘gay’ and ‘children’ in the same sentence seem, at least for now, to be effective against marriage equality
- The number of people who’re fine with gay adoption and fertility treatments is rather larger than the number who want marriage.
Now point 2. suggests to me people who’re willing to suffer consenting adults doing as they please, but who draw the line at imposing externalities upon children, perhaps until there is conclusive research. This has been seen in Europe; Belgium for instance made same sex marriage legal before gay adoption.
Point 3 instead suggests those who don’t think teh ghey destroys childhoods or seduces and corrupts youth, but who want to feel superior to gay folk, people whose psychologies are well described by John Holbo:
What makes these arguments so weird is the mildness of the underlying opposition to homosexuals and homosexuality – the implicit inclination to be basically tolerant. ‘C’mon, gays, you know you’re ok, and we know you’re ok, and you even know that we know you’re ok, but we don’t like it, so can’t there be some way that we can insist on us being a little better than you? It can be a small thing. Symbolic, but slightly inconvenient for you, so people know it’s also serious?’
I’d like to know what the relative fraction of these sub-populations is! Going by the data-points given,it seems like at least ten percent of America is comfortable with gays adopting, but not with gays marrying. That would suggest 3. (not 2.), but I don’t understand why *this* population would have unusual difficulty with gay marriage being “taught in public schools”, whatever that means.
What is going on here? What are these people thinking? Might there be low-hanging fruit with outreach efforts aiming to bring marriage and adoption views into harmony? Obviously some people will decide to disapprove of both gay marriage and adoption, but it’s plausible to me they’d be outnumbered by those who’d move the opposite way. Even if not, gay adoption isn’t a particularly hot or touchy issue, so taking that hit for a boost on gay marriage might be worthwhile. In any case, the constitutional hurdles involved in restricting a sub-population from adopting or seeking reproductive treatments are rather higher…
[Actually, never mind. It might just be a significant Rove-effect, though the media hasn’t emphasized one; did evangelicals turn out in disproportionate numbers in Maine? In any case, it seems like targeting the bizarro anti-marriage pro-adoption ten percent might be useful]
Leave a comment