Accidental Blogger

A general interest blog

  • On the 27th of January, while driving through Mozang (an extremely crowded section of Lahore city) in a rented Honda Civic, American citizen RaymondDavis shot two men who were riding a motorcycle.  Soon afterwards, another vehicle that was racing to (presumably) rescue Mr. Davis, ran over a third person and killed him too. These seem to be the only undisputed facts about the event.  Shortly afterwards, Pakistani TV channels showed one of the dead men with a revolver and an ammunition belt around his waist. It was also claimed that the two men were carrying several mobile phones and possible some other stolen items. But soon after the event, the story began to change. From a robbery attempt gone bad, it morphed into Mr. Davis assassinating two young men without obvious cause. Raymond’s own status was immediately in dispute and within a few days the network of websites that is thought to represent the views of Pakistan’s deep state were stating that Davis was a CIA agent, he was being tailed by the ISI and he had shot two ISI agents. They also claimed Davis was working with the “bad Taliban” to do bad things in Pakistan, while trying to spy on the “good Taliban” and other virtuous jihadist organizations like the LET.

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  • PSC0311_H2_344 Sure you're good at math and building things — but how will these skills ever help you impress members of the opposite sex?

    That is the burning question with which so many future Cal Tech students grapple before drifting off to sleep at night.

    There is encouraging news.  As I learned in the course of reporting for a short piece for PopsSci's do-it-yourself building section.  There are a ton of adult, talented builders who also have a flair for creative design — and so have some one-of-a-kind props for interesting parties.

  • Hoodbhoy543_pakistans_nuclear_bayonet

    Pakistan's Nuclear Bayonet, by Pervez Hoodboy

    "An extremist takeover of Pakistan is probably no further than five to 10 years away. Even today, some radical Islamists are advocating war against America.

    "In an enthusiastic moment, Napoleon is said to have remarked: “Bayonets are wonderful! One can do anything with them except sit on them!” Pakistan’s political and military establishment glows with similar enthusiasm about its nuclear weapons."

    "Over time, then, the country’s nuclear bayonet has gained more than just deterrence value; it is a dream instrument for any ruling oligarchy. Unlike Napoleon’s bayonet – painful to sit upon – nukes offer no such discomfort. Unsurprisingly, General (retd) Pervez Musharraf often referred to them as Pakistan’s “crown jewels”. One recalls that immediately after 9/11 he declared these “assets” were to be protected at all costs — even if this meant accepting American demands to dump the Taliban."

    Mumbai_20081126_cst_attack

    "But can our nukes lose their magic? Be stolen, rendered impotent or lose the charm through which they bring in precious revenue? More fundamentally, how and when could they fail to deter?

    "A turning point could possibly come with Mumbai-II. This is no idle speculation. The military establishment’s reluctance to clamp down on anti-India jihadi groups, or to punish those who carried out Mumbai-I, makes a second Pakistan-based attack simply a matter of time. Although not officially assisted or sanctioned, it would create fury in India. What then? How would India respond?"

    Read more.

  • Drinan_capitol

    "Give Us What We Want, or We Kill the Mothers and Babies!"

    I was reading an article on Robert F. Drinan, S.J., a Jesuit priest who served in the U.S. Congress for 10 years, ending in 1980. He was the first Catholic clergy to serve in Congress. His departure came at the order of Pope John Paul II, the former Cardinal of Poland, Karol Wojtyla, the only Polish Cardinal to be elected pope.

    The article described a number of reasons for forbiding Drinan from serving. Drinan was considered a liberal. The principal reason appears to be abortion rights. You can read the article at America Magazine: "Career Interrupted – Robert F. Drinan's unscheduled reitrement," by Raymond A. Schroth, S.J., March 7, 2011 issue.

    I remember when Father Drinan left the life of politics. I remember being disappointed and confused as to the reason.  All that I knew, at that time, was that Pope John Paul II required him to leave, and there was little in the way of news reporting that explained why.

    There was little doubt that Fr. Drinan was a strong moral force in Congress; and, it was at a time when it was sorely needed. Also, I think that had he stayed, and made it possible for other priests to serve, we might not have witnessed the discrimination against a Catholic priest being appointed the official Chaplain of the US Congress.

    This matter of clergy serving in politics, particularly Catholic clergy, is a very tough one to sort through. Politics is, by definition, a matter of compromise and the art of the possible. There are many ordained, and self-ordained, clerics in elected office in the U.S. Some are even sincerely religious. Why should there not be Catholic clergy in elected office?

    Organized, tax-exempt, religious institutions should not be active wavers of political banners. Yet the interests of Catholic constituents should have a voice in Congress. I would rather have a public figure, like Fr. Drinan, with some amount of transparency representing Catholic interests, than the secret backroom dealings of corrupt Cardinals and Bishops.

    John Paul II was a man of enormous faith, and great personal and moral courage. Yet, his understanding of serious human issues, like clergy sex abuse of minors, left a great deal to be desired.

    We now have a core in Congress that can best be described as insensitive and intolerant. An example of this is the morphing of the pro-life campaign into hostage taking of almost all medical, educational, social, and economic support for poor and low income mothers and their children. Let us not forget the very programs that reduce the numbers of unwanted pregnancies and the need for abortions.

    "You got the rest of the legistlative session to give us what we want! If we do not get it, then we will start killing the mothers and babies, one every minute! Their deaths will be on your hands!"

  • If you have read an interesting, well written blog post related to the arts or literature published on or later than February 23, 2010, consider nominating it for a prize sponsored by 3 Quarks Daily. Please follow the link to find out the rules of the contest and the deadlines for nominations and voting. Author Laila Lalami will judge the competition.

    A post from Accidental Blogger has been nominated. Please check it out.

    3 QD A&L Prize-2011 

  • Manipulated over the past century and a half by greedy outsiders and their own repressive leaders, many Arabs in the middle east and north Africa are saying, "Enough already!" In country after country from Morocco to Bahrain, popular uprisings are now a raging fire. The long simmering resentment of ordinary people against widespread corruption, unemployment, grotesque inequalities and curtailment of freedom which is now a growing explosive anger, is said to have been sparked by the self-immolation of a young Tunisian man who refused to be cowed down by the brutality of a corrupt police force. The wave of protests has caught the world by surprise, especially the recent events in Egypt where the stunning removal from power of Hosni Mubarak, the long time dictator and US ally was unimaginable just a few short months ago. Egyptians themselves are probably among the most surprised. This time the bogeyman for the mass demonstrators is not the US or Israel, but their own leaders who have long exploited anti-US sentiments to control the citizenry while doing the bidding of the west for their own profit. I have no special insights to add to what we are hearing in the news about the middle east. Things are in a ferment; it is hard to predict how the present and future will shape up in Egypt or elsewhere, and what the implications are for the coming trends in geo-politics. At this moment, the hottest spot in the Arab fire storm is in Libya where the crazy colonel has threatened to become a martyr while inciting a civil war among his countrymen with the help of foreign mercenaries. A map of the region shows the time line and the current status of events in the affected areas.

    In the midst of this turmoil, which seems to be entirely homegrown and the result of years of repression by brutal and brittle dictatorships, it is very tiresome to hear some commentators pontificate on what the west, especially the US, should or should not have done. I am not talking only about neo-con warmongers or demented talk show fearmongers, who have predictably become sudden critics of democracy and liberty. Some serious conservative thinkers are also weighing in with the tired, tested and failed foreign policy solutions of the past that led to disasters such as the immoral wars in Vietnam and Iraq. Once again, they blithely assume that the US can always shape things to its own liking elsewhere in the world and "stability" can be assured by backroom politicking within the US state department and the White House briefing room. Here is an excerpt from an irritatingly arrogant essay by Niall Ferguson in Newsweek.

    The wave Obama just missed—again—is the revolutionary wave of Middle Eastern democracy. It has surged through the region twice since he was elected: once in Iran in the summer of 2009, the second time right across North Africa, from Tunisia all the way down the Red Sea to Yemen. But the swell has been biggest in Egypt, the Middle East’s most populous country.

    In each case, the president faced stark alternatives. He could try to catch the wave, Bismarck style, by lending his support to the youthful revolutionaries and trying to ride it in a direction advantageous to American interests. Or he could do nothing and let the forces of reaction prevail. In the case of Iran, he did nothing, and the thugs of the Islamic Republic ruthlessly crushed the demonstrations. This time around, in Egypt, it was worse. He did both—some days exhorting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to leave, other days drawing back and recommending an “orderly transition.”

    The result has been a foreign-policy debacle. The president has alienated everybody: not only Mubarak’s cronies in the military, but also the youthful crowds in the streets of Cairo. Whoever ultimately wins, Obama loses. And the alienation doesn’t end there. America’s two closest friends in the region—Israel and Saudi Arabia—are both disgusted. The Saudis, who dread all manifestations of revolution, are appalled at Washington’s failure to resolutely prop up Mubarak. The Israelis, meanwhile, are dismayed by the administration’s apparent cluelessness.

    Last week, while other commentators ran around Cairo’s Tahrir Square, hyperventilating about what they saw as an Arab 1989, I flew to Tel Aviv for the annual Herzliya security conference. The consensus among the assembled experts on the Middle East? A colossal failure of American foreign policy.This failure was not the result of bad luck. It was the predictable consequence of the Obama administration’s lack of any kind of coherent grand strategy, a deficit about which more than a few veterans of U.S. foreign policy making have long worried….

    The best national-security advisers have combined deep knowledge of international relations with an ability to play the Machiavellian Beltway game, which means competing for the president’s ear against the other would-be players in the policymaking process: not only the defense secretary but also the secretary of state and the head of the Central Intelligence Agency. No one has ever done this better than Henry Kissinger. But the crucial thing about Kissinger as national-security adviser was not the speed with which he learned the dark arts of interdepartmental turf warfare. It was the skill with which he, in partnership with Richard Nixon, forged a grand strategy for the United States at a time of alarming geopolitical instability.

    So, what exactly could the US have done in Egypt? Wasn't Vietnam a colossal failure despite the brilliant Machiavellian ways of Kissinger and Nixon that Mr. Ferguson so admires? Isn't Iraq, the brainchild of Cheney-Rumsfeld-Bush, the misguided Bismarckian trio who tried to infuse democracy by war and violence, a continuing mess? (During the Egyptian protest Cheney claimed that Mubarak was not a dictator) Aren't 9 /11, the complicated war in Afghanistan and the tensions in Pakistan the detritus of our clever cold war calculations which have boomeranged and come back to haunt us?

    Ferguson is a historian. His specialty is "counterfactual history"- what the world may have been like if powerful individuals had gone down one political path instead of another. Here are some of my own wishful counterfactuals regarding the world and the Islamic middle east and south Asia in particular.

    • What if after WWI and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the Arab world had not been carved up like a child's jig-saw puzzle by western colonizers hungry for oil and imperial hegemony, without any regard for regional allegiances, religious sensibilites and tribal identities?
    • What would Iran be like today if we hadn't toppled the democratically elected Mohammed Mossadegh in favor of the Shah of Iran only to ensure profits for American and British oil companies?
    • What if the US had dealt with democratic India after its independence even handedly as a reasonable political partner and not a Soviet stooge to be kept in check by heavily arming successive Pakistani military and civilian dictatorships? 
    • What if the US had indeed acted as an impartial referee in the Israel-Palestine conflict and not routinely caved in to powerful pro-Israel lobbies at home?
    • What if we had controlled our knee jerk fear and pride and tolerated Najibullah's communist rule in Afghanistan instead of collaborating with  the savage Taliban to teach a lesson to our then arch enemy, the Soviet Union?
    • What if Israel had not supported Hamas / Muslim Brotherhood in order to weaken the secular resistance movement of the PLO?
    • And the most controversial counterfactual of all: What if the Soviet Union were still in existence as a counterbalance to the US superpower?  Would we have invaded Iraq without just cause, created the deep morass in the Af/Pak region and seen a sharp rise in religious fundamentalism?

    Counterfactual historical musings are sometimes as useful as trying to squeeze the toothpaste back into the tube. Sure, future policies should be based on 20/20 hindsight but only if we correct past errors and not repeat them. Perhaps Obama's "do nothing but use lofty rhetoric to soothe" is a good enough policy for the bubbling cauldron of the middle east now, where people are focused on toppling corrupt dinosauric leaders and shaping their own future with a semblance of dignity. If the Arab revolution results in putting in place governments we don't like or situations we deem unstable, we will just have to deal with them with caution. If oil prices rise, we will have to tighten our belts. If Islamic parties come in power, we'd better treat them with civility, common sense, resigned humility and not the customary self serving heavy hand, so that they come to see moderation as a better choice than extremism. We must be honest enough to support the principles of fairness, liberty and dignity for the Arab public that we proclaim to uphold for ourselves. Stability may result in time, naturally and organically without our meddling, through the willing participation of the common man on the streets of Tripoli, Manama, Tunis and Cairo. We can only hope but cannot guarantee that stable democratic societies will emerge from the current upheaval. Meanwhile, the Obama administration has its work cut out in the American midwest.

    Update (November, 2011): In the mere nine months since I made these observations, much has happened. Tunisia is in the process of establishing a democratic government; Syria finds itself in the midst of a bloody turmoil and President Bashar al-Assad is being roundly condemned by his neighbors;  Bahrain and Yemen continue to smolder under the patina of apparent quiet; after four decades of heading a capricious and iron fisted regime Muammar Gaddafi met with a gruesome end and Egypt's Tahrir Square is busy again with teeming crowds of protesters unhappy with the post-Mubarak administration. In the US, popular protests have spread from the Wisconsin state capitol to public parks, college campuses and  downtown centers of major cities. Far away from the middle east and Zuccotti Park, another oppressive and secretive dictatorship's downfall may be imminent at long last. In the poverty stricken, ravaged land of Myanmar, democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi's party is set to contest all parliamentary seats in the upcoming election. In early December Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be dispatched there in an effort to help lift the now moldering bamboo curtain that has isolated the Burmese people from the rest of the world for decades.

    Overview-of-protests-in-tahrir-square  Occupy_wall_street

  • As usual, I am late in commenting on a hot topic on the blog which I had up on my Facebook page (under the same title) as soon as the news broke of thousands of protesting public sector employees taking to the streets in Madison, WI. In the FB comment I called Scott Walker, the newly elected Tea Party governor of Wisconsin a jackass. As more facts about the Wisconsin have emerged, I have found no reason to revise my opinion of the man. Here are a few things about Walker's actions that I found suspicious right off the bat.

    • Wisconsin, like many other states is facing budgetary constraints. But when Walker took over, the state budget was projected to end with a surplus in the 2011 fiscal year.
    • Walker proceeded to give tax cuts to businesses as one of his first acts as governor claiming that those taxes go to support the excessive benefits of state employees.
    • He refused to negotiate benefits and pensions with public employees until they gave up their right to collective bargaining.
    • Although most employees unions were targeted, Walker left out the unions of police, fire fighters and the state patrol (these particular unions tend to vote Republican) although these groups too are public workers.

    I don't have much to add to the facts that have emerged since the news first broke. I will instead link to a couple of articles that have the details of the strike in Wisconsin and its ramifications for the rest of the country where similar measures are being considered by Republican governors. First, from the Christian Science Monitor:

    No region of the country was more comprehensively recast by the 2010 elections than the seven states of the upper Midwest that arc from Minnesota to Ohio. Where before Democrats had held the upper hand, Republicans now have a virtual stranglehold on politics, controlling both houses of the legislature and the governors’ chairs in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

    The full import of that switch has become apparent on the streets of Madison, Wis., this week. At least 25,000 union Wisconsin protesters amassed Friday morning in and around the Capitol to protest the governor’s plans. Earlier in the week, there had been as many as 40,000. Schools have been canceled, and one rally lasted a marathon 17 hours.

    With the state's tea party activists set to counterprotest Saturday, the drama has set the scene for the streets of Madison to become a surrogate for the clash of broader forces that currently define American politics.

    House Speaker John Boehner (R) has backed Governor Walker even as President Obama denounced the Wisconsin bill as an "assault on unions." The AFL-CIO, the country's largest union, vowed a national protest to support Wisconsin public employees.

    One political scientist has gone so far as to compare the Wisconsin protests with what transpired in Cairo earlier this month.

    Yet for the Midwest, the protests hint at a conflict that could extend well beyond this weekend and beyond Wisconsin. With state legislatures redrawing congressional and legislative district maps this year, Midwest Republicans have an opportunity to change the political landscape for years to come.

    And here is Joshua Holland in Alternet explaining why Walker's plans amount to plain old union busting disguised as fiscal responsibility just as the Republican hero Ronald Reagan once did and thrilled his admiring fans. (Before Reagan became the president of the country, he twice served as the  president of the Screen Actors Guild, a trade union like any other, and which has expressed its support for the striking Wisconsin public employees)  

     

  • my comment and some updated coverage of the Bahraini uprising….

  • This much hyped and watched TV event seems to be the next logical step to ponder following Sujatha's recent post on language and grammar which soon morphed into language and thought in the comments section. So, IBM's Watson beat out the humans. But what was it thinking and in what language? What is the significance of coming up with the right moves and answers when an entity doesn't really understand what is being asked? Along with the NYT story linked above, see also this article which explains why despite the whopping defeat handed the men by the machine, language and information processing are not the same thing.

    Jeopardy-Watson 

    All of this is to say that while Ken and Brad lost the battle, Team Carbon is still winning the language war against Team Silicon. The "war" metaphor, incidentally, had been playing out for weeks, stoked by IBM and Jeopardy! to build public interest in the tournament. The press gladly played along, supplying headlines like the one in the Science Times from Tuesday, "A Fight to Win the Future: Computers vs. Humans." IBM knew from the Kasparov vs. Deep Blue days that we're all suckers for the "man vs. machine" trope, going back to John Henry's mythical race against the steam-powered hammer. It certainly makes for a better storyline than, say, "Check out the latest incremental innovations that Natural Language Processing researchers are making in the field of question-answering!"

     

  • I have posted some links and comments to the Raymond Davis case on Brown Pundits…check it out: http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/02/16/raymond-davis-strategic-corporal/

  • An article in yesterday's NYT chronicles the evolution of the recent Egyptian revolution. There is no doubt that by and large the revolt against the government of Hosni Mubarak was planned, organized and launched by the tech savvy youth of Egypt. The peaceful protests caught the regime by surprise and the ham handed efforts to quell the uprising was not successful. (An interesting aside. Note who organized the crowd and prevented panic and violence against the Mubarak's thugs  – the Muslim Brotherhood and soccer fans, both with experience with the Egyptian police's riot control methods.)

    Egyptian revolt 
    Now that Mubarak has been retired by  his "subjects," people have mostly gone back to pick up the thread of their normal lives after their impressive and unexpected political triumph. The world's eyes are on Egypt, while we wait to see how the aftermath of a revolt against despotism will unfold. While everyone wishes that Egyptians will indeed for the first time in a long time, enjoy democratic self-rule, no one is really sure what shape that democracy will eventually assume. Egypt has seen the overthrow of governments, both domestic and foreign several times in the past 150 years. What followed changes in regimes didn't always live up to the expectations of the Egyptian people for whom authoritarianism has been the rule rather than the exception. Some dictators were well loved by the public and others like Mubarak, hated. But it was dictatorship in most cases – of colonizers, kings or elected leaders. While most of us rejoice with the Egyptians for their unprecedented political victory and exceptional courage, let's keep a few things in mind.

    • The removal of Mubarak was possible in the end, largely because the Egyptian military refused to provide him further cover. So, his removal was both the result of a public uprising as well as a bloodless military coup.
    • That Mubarak did not follow the example of some other repressive regimes, (here, here and here) was a stroke of very good luck for the protesters.
    • The Iranian revolution of 1978 – 79 was launched primarily as a populist uprising against a repressive monarchy by mostly secular minded university students, labor unions, as also persecuted religious leaders and scholars. We all know which of the participating groups subsequently hijacked the entire "people's power" movement. 

    We do not know what the future trajectory is for Egyptian politics. Just because the techies organized the protests doesn't necessarily mean that their globalized secular views will find favor with the next government. The military is now in control as it has been in much of Egypt's recent history. Will this powerful establishment relinquish their power voluntarily and soon in favor of a democratic people's rule? An equally important unknown in the equation is the will of the common people – the ordinary Egyptians who do not have much use for 21st century technology in their personal lives. What will they demand? It may well turn out that their idea of democracy and freedom may not be the same one that the mostly secular westernized younger bloggers and Facebookers who issued the clarion call for  "change." Instead, the poor, the pious, the less educated and in other words, the more numerous of the Egyptian population may demand an Islamic democracy which will not exactly end up being Revolution 2.0 as one euphoric revolutionary has described it.

    For the contradictions and pitfalls of an Islamic democracy in the 21st century, see this legal analysis by Pakistani lawyer Feisal Naqvi over at 3 Quarks Daily.  

     

     

  • Gp Take this, you English-mangling, bumbling writers blending in your regional dialects, oddities of phrase and grammar in your writing. A pontificating pundit from The Hindu ('India's National Newspaper') laments the death of good English in Indian writing, and herself commits more than a few cardinal sins in the process.

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