Accidental Blogger

A general interest blog

  • Less than a year ago, I recounted my experience of living through a hurricane both before and after the storm.  Although Ike was technically a Category 2 hurricane (falling 1 mph short of Cat 3), it has been repeatedly described as a monster storm and the devastation it wreaked on the cities of Galveston and Houston qualified it as the third most destructive hurricanes on record to have made landfall in the US. 

    Although Ike packed Cat 2 strength winds, it was a huge storm that covered a broad area and gave rise to storm surges way higher than would be expected from a hurricane of that intensity. Considering that a storm relatively low on the currently used Saffir-Simpson Scale of measuring hurricane strengths based on wind velocity did so much damage, some meteorologists now wish to devise a new scale to predict the effects of hurricanes more accurately by taking into account additional factors. That scale, they say, should take into consideration not just the speed of the hurricane but also the size of the "real" storm surge which cannot be calculated accurately on the  current scale. According to Saffir-Simpson, a Cat 2 hurricane causes storm surges of 6 – 8 feet. Yet Ike gave rise to surges measuring up to 15 - 25ft. upon touching down in Galveston.  Storm surges, say hurricane experts, do more damage to life and property than wind speeds.  

    Saffir-Simpson scale 1 AUSTIN — For this year’s tropics season, the National Hurricane Center won’t abandon the venerable Saffir-Simpson scale, which rates hurricanes on a familiar scale, from Category 1 to Category 5.

    But the center’s director says any single index cannot begin to capture the local impact of a hurricane, a fact Hurricane Ike — only a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale — made stark to residents of the upper Texas coast.

    “If I could wave a wand and make it go away, I would,” said Bill Read, at the National Hurricane Conference in Austin on Friday. “It made sense in the era it was conceived, four decades ago, and now it’s ingrained in the culture.”

    Attendees at the hurricane center have buzzed about the Saffir-Simpson scale’s inadequacies. KHOU-TV’s chief meteorologist Gene Norman said it needs to be modified to better account for surge. Greg Bostwick, a meteorologist at KFDM-TV in Beaumont, said his viewers couldn’t believe how “only” a Category 2 storm striking 90 miles away could flood one-third of Orange County.

    Some hurricane scientists, such as Mark Powell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Research Division, have been arguing in recent months to replace the Saffir-Simpson scale entirelySaffir-Simpson scale entirely. Powell said the scale is especially deceptive when it comes to storm surges, and when you review the data there’s simply no correlation between the category of a hurricane and the amount of land it inundates.

    Developed in the late 1960s and early 1970s by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and Robert Simpson, then-director of the National Hurricane Center, the Saffir-Simpson scale is simple and has gained wide public acceptance.

    (more…)

  • Beware of identity theft this Easter! (photos via my good friend Nancy)

    Easter-1 Easter - 2 Easter - 3 Easter - 4 Easter - 5 Easter - 6

  • .”End of Watch, April 4, 2009″ read the flashing sign above the Parkway as I headed home from work today. Was this a novel way of signalling some accident had created congestion ahead?
    “Fallen Hero, PO Stephen Mahyle”, flashed the sign.
    Three police officers, Stephen Mahyle, Eric Kelly and Paul Sciullo II fell in the line of duty as they responded to a domestic call and were felled by bullets fired by Richard Andrew Poplawski of Stanton Heights.
    The analyses of the gunman’s motives have begun, ranging from insanity(favored by his relatives) to the hatred-filled inspiration of local right-wing talk hosts to his purported fear of having guns taken away by the Obama administration and Survivalist memes peddled by the likes of Alex Jones, 9-11 conspiracy theorist par excellence and Stormfront, an extremist website.
    Three police officers lie in state at the City Hall, roads closed to contain the swelling crowds expected to pay their last respects to them.
    For Poplawski, life will drag out into a series of trials, for the wheels of justice always grind much slower than the speeding bullets. If he’s lucky and gets a very good lawyer, he may even escape the fate of another similar conspiracy-loving survivalist type who rampaged 8 years ago and now still sits on death row: Richard Baumhammers.
    End of Watch, caused by someone enamored of the End Times Watch.

  • Kosher_cokeI am not an observant Jew. To put it more succinctly, I am not Jewish at all. Yet I look forward to Passover each year for one gastronomic reason – kosher Coca-Cola. I am not much of a soft drink lover either, tea and water being my beverages of choice. But when I do drink soda, I prefer ice cold Classic Coke or regular Pepsi to anything else.  Both are familiar soft drinks of my childhood in India – delicious tingling beverages that brought much relief on hot sunny days at home, in restaurants or by the shack of a road side vendor.

    I was not aware that kosher dietary laws extend to soft drinks until just a few years ago (probably 2001 or 2002). During the Passover week that year, I happened to pass a special table displaying kosher goods for the upcoming holiday at my local grocery store and noticed 2 liter bottles of Coke with distinctive yellow caps among the items. I brought one home purely out of curiosity. It turned out to be a pleasant surprise – it tasted like real Coke, a nostalgic taste no longer found in the modern incarnation of the drink. Having never paid any attention to the ingredients in Coca-Cola, I had no idea why the kosher cola tasted so much better than the ordinary variety. A Jewish friend shed light on the mystery. Kosher Coke is made with sugar – it is indeed the Real Thing. In the mid '80s the Coca-Cola company led the way in switching to high fructose corn syrup as sweetener for soft drinks, ditching real sugar from the ingredients. No wonder the kosher Coke tasted so good – it invoked the happy times of youth. Since then every Passover season, I keep an eye out for this rare commodity – kosher Coke is as rare as it is ephemeral. It makes its fleeting appearance for just a few days around this time of the year and if one is not vigilant, it is gone. Last year I missed it. So, I am determined to obtain a couple of bottles this year. I was at the grocery store this morning looking for kosher Coke. It hadn't arrived. I talked to the manager and he assured me that he has some on order and I should check back tomorrow or the day after. Greedy though I am for this special concoction, I only purchase moderate quantities partly out of consideration for Jewish shoppers and partly because 2 liter bottles are not the best option for our household of just two members, neither of whom consumes carbonated drinks in large quantities. Most years I have only managed to find this large sized  packaging. Just once, the store also carried cans of kosher Coke which I much prefer.

    If you are too young to have ever tasted soft drinks sweetened  with sugar and you didn't know about  kosher Coke, do try to find some this week and taste the Real Thing.  Read more about this special edition of Coca-Cola here.

    Note: This post originally appeared on March 18, 2008. I am bringing it to the front for the Passover week that begins today.

  • Kutner committed suicide on House.  First, if you don't watch House, you're missing out.  Second, and this is really cool — this happened because Kal Penn is leaving to go be an associate director of the White House Office of Public Liaison.  How often do you see an actor do that?

  • It is April in Texas and my friend Linda has again sent out some spectacular pictures of wild flowers ablaze in the countryside.  This year, there are no surprises among the blooms as there was last year. Enjoy. (click to enlarge)

    Springtime in Texas 1  Springtime in Texas 2  Springtime in Texas 3 Springtime in Texas 4   Springtime in Texas 5

  • In an e-mail following up on the Iowa Supreme Court's same-sex marriage decision, Ruchira mentions the possibility of a challenge to the military.  "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" means that openly gay (or bisexual?) members of the military are not permitted to serve, but everyone is supposed to just not mention it and look the other way. 

    During his campaign for the presidency, Barack Obama had promised to repeal Don't Ask, Don't Tell.  Because it's a statute, we actually need the Congress to do it legislatively, although the Obama administration could arguably just refuse to enforce it.  In any event, the Obama administration is enforcing the law and has recently — allegedly temporarily — given up on reform. 

    This is a little strange because repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell enjoys widespread popular support — far more than same-sex marriage (and, I suspect without fact-checking, more than civil unions).  So you'd think it should happen easily through the political process.  But right now it's not.  The question then becomes, Is it going to happen through a court challenge?

    I doubt it.  The Constitution basically does apply in the military, but the Supreme Court has traditionally recognized "the unique nature of military society" in modifying constitutional requirements.  This is true, for example, in the realm of criminal procedure.  I suspect that if there's anywhere where the military will be entitled to deference, it's on an issue like this which purportedly relates to the military's ability to operate effectively. 

    In short, a court challenge, while not inevitably unsuccessful, would almost certainly be weaker than a challenge to marriage laws, and is thus further away.  It's hard to believe that policy makers haven't fixed this problem, though, and I suspect they will long before a successful court challenge could be mounted.

  • Yesterday the Iowa Supreme Court issued a unanimous opinion in Varnum v. Brien, holding that the equal protection provision of the Iowa Constitution requires the availability of same-sex civil marriage. 

    This is starting to look like a strong, and increasing, trend in favor of state recognition of same-sex marriage.  Iowa joins the high courts of Massachusetts and Connecticut in mandating full marriage equality.  (California, of course, had also done that, but its decision was overturned by Prop 8.  Unlike California, Iowa's constitution is not absurdly easy to amend, so there is little chance of a similar amendment in this case.) 

    One thing I did not realize until just now is that we may soon see legislation (which was not mandated by courts) creating same-sex marriages.  According to the San Francisco Chronicle, legislation is pending in Vermont, New Hampshire, and New Jersey.  In Vermont it has passed through both houses, although the governor has threatened to veto it.  In New Hampshire it has passed a house vote and is awaiting a vote by the senate.  In New Jersey a bill has been introduced in the legislature; the governor has vowed to sign it.  Legislative success would refute the complaints about judicial activism and a lack of democratic legitimacy.  It would also further embolden courts to make constitutional decisions in favor of marriage equality.

    The speed at which these decisions are now rolling out is also significant.  The California Supreme Court decided its case less than a year ago; Connecticut decided its less than six months ago.  With each case it becomes easier for the next state to cite it and follow in its stead.  The fact that Iowa is widely regarded as the purple, mainstreamish leader of the heartland only strengthens the case.  No one has ever accused Iowa of being full of pot-smoking hippies, or liberal, coastal elitists. 

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota follow, leaning heavily on its well-regarded neighbor of a supreme court.  And what then?  Wisconsin?  No, sadly — we run into a problem at that point.  Wisconsin is one of 29 states with a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage; this group is comprised mainly of conservative states, but in addition to Wisconsin also includes Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, and Oregon. 

    So let's say Vermont, New Hampshire, and New Jersey pass their legislation.  The Minnesota judiciary follows Iowa.  At least some out of a group including Rhode Island, New York, Maine, Washington, and Pennsylvania could be expected to follow, as well as possibly a surprise like New Mexico.  Asking for all of that would be too much, but within a few years it's realistic to expect CT, MA, IA, NJ, NH, as well as, say, MN, RI, NY, and WA to have same-sex marriage.  That's 9 states, 7 of them on the basis of judicial decisions.  The figure could not go higher than 21 on state grounds, which is where the next interesting step comes into play: federal constitutional law.  What happens then is harder to guess at — it's plausible that federal or state judges will want to be the ones to kick off a U.S. Constitution-based right to marriage equality, but if it happens too soon, the U.S. Supreme Court will kill it (unless Justice Kennedy is convinced by the growing state trend and wants to be the one to really top it off — he would obviously get that opinion).

    In any event, this is great news out of Iowa.  It's an important step toward legal equality for gay people in this country, and for now there is reason for optimism.