Super Tuesday has come and gone and it is up to us, the candidates and media pundits to crunch the numbers, read deep meanings in voter demographics and slice the cucumber thin to get the big picture. None of us knows what lies ahead. The Republican primaries have been decisive in their verdict – John McCain is a clear front runner. The picture on the Democratic side is more murky. Brian Leiter has a summary and analysis of last night’s results at Leiter Reports where he concludes:
The margins of victory are telling elsewhere. In her home state of New York, Clinton beat Obama by 17 percentage points; in his home state of Illinois, Obama beat Clinton by 32 percentage points. Obama beat Clinton by a small margin in neighboring Connecticut (that he won at all is very telling), and by ten percentage points in Delaware, part of the Northeast corridor, which one might have thought safe territory for the New York Senator.
If one remembers that Senator Clinton started with a huge name recognition advantage, and was the presumptive nominee before the process started, it is clear how much trouble she is now in. She may yet pull it out. The decent thing to do, of course, would be to withdraw from the race. As one right-wing pundit wrote not long ago, "Only one thing can now unite the Republican Party: Hillary Clinton."
Like everyone else I am struck by Obama setting the American prairie on fire – huge margins of win in places like Colorado, Minnesota, N. Dakota and Idaho. Add to that even more unlikely states such as Alaska and Utah. Young men in Idaho (Idaho?) have switched party registration so they can vote for him. This can mean one of two things. Either Obama is indeed a person (like Tiger Woods) who transcends race or some people are really uneasy about Clinton. Or may be it is both. The latter however explains why a surprisingly large parade of US senators and governors (some of them women) have endorsed Obama so enthusiastically so early in the campaign.
But there is an "inspiration" vs "duty to establishment" divide in this campaign which might yet put Billary over the top. I am going to stick my neck out and look under some rocks for undercurrents which have defined the Democratic race thus far.
Friend and fellow blogger Elatia Harris (3 Quarks Daily) who is supporting Barack Obama forwarded me a rage filled article by feminist author and Hillary Clinton supporter Robin Morgan. Among other insults and unfounded suspicions, Morgan implies (quoting Harriet Tubman) that women who prefer Obama over Clinton are slaves who don’t know that they are slaves. In the process, she ends up saying some amazingly condescending things about Obama – sounding more like a wounded member of a snooty sorority whose exclusive gates have been crashed rather than a cool headed analyst of how and why the elections are unfolding the way they are. To paraphrase Morgan, "Shut up and wait your turn after eight years. You will only be 54!" is the message to Obama. To enraged HRC supportes like her the anti-Hillary (or pro-Obama) votes are all about gender and punishing women.
The other telling aspect of this election is the Latino and Asian aversion to Barack Obama, an African American. We are comfortable discussing the standard racism and sexism of the white male but are reluctant to address the prejudices of minority communities. In California Clinton’s win or at least, the margin of her win was facilitated by the Latino and Asian voting blocks who overwhelmingly favor her over Obama. In my own unscientific survey, I find that while many younger Asians of both genders are supporting Obama, Hillary is the favorite of older Asians (all Asians). The support is much stronger among older women than with men. Among Latinos, her support spreads across the board. This has been attributed rightly or wrongly to hostilities between black and Latino communities. (Hillary Clinton coolly shrugged off a comment to that effect by ethnic researcher Sergio Bendixen as a mere "historic statement.") In New Mexico (as yet undecided) where Native Americans form a significant part of the minority population and both Asian and African American presence is small, Obama is holding his own against Clinton.
The permutations and combinations of the play of gender and race in the Democratic primary are complex and it is difficult to come up with a predictable pattern. It is foolish to attribute the results to just race or gender. I do not know if Obama, a newcomer on the stage of national politics has enough time to allay the fears of his detractors and gain their vote of confidence. Hillary’s name recognition on the other hand, can work both for and against her. A well known political commodity, she can change fewer minds. Let us see how the rest of the primaries play out.
Ms Morgan trots out Hillary’s lengthy feminist credentials (some of which sound as thin as her "thirty five years" of experience and public service) but doesn’t stop to ask why we didn’t hear from HRC when her husband threw women like Joycelyn Elders, Lani Guinier and Marian Wright Edelman (who also happen to be African Americans) under the bus. In her impassioned defense of Hillary, Morgan comes across as an angry activist who in her frustration, would rather see women bow to entitlement politics in favor of gender while bitterly decrying the other side of doing the same for race. To the unconvinced, that impatient message has the disturbing undertone of "We have been foot soldiers, we have fought the war, our bones have been broken. You owe us even if what we have to offer at this time is terribly flawed."
I am an Obama supporter. My age, race, gender and political leanings should make me a Hillary supporter. I also know other Asian and white women who defy the so called "race and gender" considerations and support Obama over Clinton. As far as I know, none of them has uttered the ugly epithets against Hillary that Morgan claims are the reason why women (and men) fear her. Neither has any one of us ever scolded her for not baking enough cookies. We do not doubt that Hillary is intelligent and hard working. But we do question her political judgement. Also, we cannot in good conscience help elect a candidate when we are aware of her easy mendacity, cynical opportunism and the brittleness of her principles. The decision is based on her politics and not her womanhood. But the most important reason many of us will not vote for Hillary remains Bill (then and now) whom Morgan seems to either forgive or forget just so she can send a woman to the White House.